Jamaica: When is the Revolution?

In a recent conversation with Jamaican Human Rights Activist and Radio Talk Show Host Lloyd D’Aguilar, it was disclosed that more and more callers to his talk show are saying ‘they are ready for a revolution’ and asking when is the Revolution?

The virus crisis has crippled the island’s tourism leading to a serious economic shock. Not only are established businesses dying, the larger underground economy of hustlers, peddlers and the like are seriously suffering. Jamaica’s economy is a two-legged economy; tourism and remittances from the diaspora. While remittances, contrary to expectations have remained steady, tourism is non-existent. Tourism was expected to recover this year but as the virus crisis lengthens, the International Air Travel Association (IATA) is now predicting that recovery to previous levels will not happen until 2022-23.

In Jamaica, corruption and crime contribute to a continuing climate of economic and social despair which should lead to social unrest (protests), an increase in those wanting to emigrate, increased use of ganja to relieve distress and more young people involved with criminal gangs. What has happened though is that when there are protests, they are very localized, confined to a specific community. Emigration is at a standstill and yet, unlike what is happening in many other countries, there are no widespread social protests. This is because Jamaica has certain ‘safety valves’.

Those who did not benefit directly from remittances and tourism benefitted from these economic safety valves which have helped to stabilize Jamaica. In the past, the main social and economic safety valves of Jamaica have been emigration, ganja, corruption and (ironically) criminal gangs. The repertoire of criminal gangs include murder for hire (hit men), extortion, renting/importing/selling guns, drugs retail and exporting ganja.  I include criminal gangs as safety valves as they not only do those things, they also host community dances and other social events filling the vacuum of government in their areas by helping the aged, children with school fees, etc. These societal safety valves have provided valuable relief of social pressure which is why Jamaica has not had widespread social unrest in recent times. With the decline in tourism and emigration not currently an option due to the virus crisis, more and more Jamaicans not benefitting from remittances have to rely on the other safety valves: corruption and criminal gangs. The politicians know this and while they spout rhetoric about fighting gangs, they know they cannot eliminate them as these gangs are so entrenched and in a weird way the gangs serve the purpose of the political establishment by keeping revolutionary pressure in check. Police Commissioners and political administrations may come and go but the gangs remain.

Corruption is an economic drag on an economy which reduces funds available for social intervention and distributive transfers. There is also a social drag e.g. environmental degradation as was illustrated recently by the recent government bauxite mining and the quarry approvals in the mountains. So, while corruption and crime should normally contribute to social unrest the safety valves prevent this progression to widespread social unrest. There was some protest about the bauxite mining and quarry approvals in the mountains but these were small and localized.

Another reason why there will not be a revolution is Jamaica is that the progressive movement in Ja as represented by Trevor Munroe, Horace Levy etal seems to have been co-opted. As Lloyd D’Aguilar stated on his radio program on 4th Jan 2021, the New Year messages from these leaders of the progressive movement seemed very bland….Without leadership, an organized revolution is very unlikely.

The reason for a revolution is to bring about change and someone has to lead the charge. In Cuba it was Fidel, in Singapore Lee Lee Kuan Yew, in Britain Boris Johnson with Brexit. Prior to Jamaicans having the right to vote and prior to independence, the Jamaican diaspora was more politically engaged in Jamaica. There was a vision to drive people forward for universal adult suffrage and to independence from Britain. The first of the two majority parties, the PNP was financed by the diaspora in New York – The Jamaica Progressive League. This body’s goal was self- government for Jamaica. According to encoclopedia.ca: ‘The Jamaica Progressive League (JPL) of New York, formed in 1936 by a group of Jamaican men and women residing in New York City, set in motion the movement for self-government on the island of Jamaica, which gained its independence from Britain in 1962. The organization survives into the present….One of the first organizational strategies of the New York–based JPL was to establish a political party in Jamaica (the People's National Party, or PNP) devoted to universal suffrage and self-government…..The founding members thus comprised a broad coalition of Jamaicans, and this united front reflected the migrant community's response to a series of insurgencies that occurred all over the Caribbean between 1935 and 1938. Anticolonial labor riots erupted in Jamaica…. Demonstrators protested widespread unemployment, poor health and sanitary conditions, low wages, and many other social conditions.’ However, despite universal adult suffrage and independence, these problems continue to plague Jamaica. ‘The colonial authority’s response was military and punitive, and many workers were killed, wounded, or arrested. These events created a diaspora-wide response from Harlem to London, helped mobilize pan-Caribbean organizations, and inspired demands for self-government and immediate reform.   See: https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/jamaica-progressive-league   Currently, this kind of feeling no longer exists in the diaspora. Most members of the diaspora are preoccupied with just sending money to their loved ones and most diaspora organizations to the delight of the Jamaican political establishment are only concerned with charitable works. I do not know the reason for this political apathy among the diaspora and their leadership but whatever the reason, without the involvement of the diaspora, it is doubtful that the protests in Jamaica will evolve into anything revolutionary without leadership. Even if local leadership arose, that leadership would need organizational and financial help from the diaspora.

Conclusion: Change to what?

In the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s, most Jamaicans clearly wanted the vote and Independence from Britain. One may argue that has not turned out well for us as others who remained colonies are doing better but that is an argument for another time as the reality is that there is no going back to colonial status for Jamaica so the argument is moot anyway. While there does seem to be a clear cohesive vision for the future of Jamaica (Vision 2030) there does not seem to be an understanding as to how to achieve it. The politicians thrash around with no priorities and fundamentally little idea about what to do other than try to stay a step ahead of the media with badly implemented gimmicks and avoid blame for Jamaica’s institutionalized dysfunction. In my next missive, I will propose changes that Jamaica must make if it is to pull itself out of its present dystopian state.

Raymond D. Grant

Research Director EXILED Canada

exiledonline.ca

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWY9f91Awb0FTpg1-6Vi3OA